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Global Environmental
              Challenges
               Henning Steinfeld, FAO

ILRI-World Bank Consultation on the Global Livestock Agenda by 2020
                     Nairobi, 12 - 13 March 2012
Livestock demand and resource
               constraints

Global demand to grow by       Growing scarcities and risks
  70 to 80 % by 2050           • Growing scarcities - oil,
• Stagnant in rich countries     land, water, energy,
• Still strong in emerging       phosphorus
  countries                    • Environmental
• Rapidly growing                degradation and
  anywhere else (+200 % in       pollution
  Africa)                      • Climate change
150
                               200
                                     250




              50
                   100




          0
Apr-01
Aug-01
Dec-01
Apr-02
Aug-02
Dec-02
Apr-03
Aug-03
Dec-03
Apr-04
Aug-04
Dec-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
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Aug-06
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Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
                                           Commodity Price Index Monthly Price




Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
                                                                                 Commodity prices on the rise




Aug-10
Dec-10
 Apr-11
International prices for maize and
                soy
 US $ /ton




              Facts and Trends
                          Source: FAO commodity prices, 2011
HUMAN-EDIBLE PROTEIN BALANCE IN THE LIVESTOCK
     PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COUNTRIES


               EDIBLE PROTEIN OUTPUT/INPUT    EDIBLE PROTEIN OUTPUT-INPUT
                                                        TONNES

               AV. 1995-1997   AV.2005-2007    AV. 1995-1997   AV.2005-2007

Saudi Arabia       0.15            0.19          -533 731        -659 588

USA                0.48            0.53         -7 846 859      -7 650 830

Germany            0.66            0.62          -921 449       -1 183 290

China              0.75            0.95         -2 822 998       -665 276

Netherlands        1.66            1.02          322 804          18 070

Brazil             0.79            1.17          -622 177        550 402

Nepal              2.25            1.88           37 370          40 803

India              3.60            4.30          2 249 741      3 379 440

Sudan              18.22           8.75          235 868         340 895

New Zealand        8.04           10.06          460 366         638 015

Mongolia           14.72          14.60           42 987          35 858

Ethiopia           16.02          16.95           99 909         141 395

Kenya              18.08          21.16          124 513         202 803
Point of Departure
The livestock sector is resource-hungry
• ~ 70 of total agricultural land, 35 % of all crop land
• ~ 60 % of total anthropogenic biomass
  appropriation
• ~ 29 % of agricultural water use
• ~ 15 % of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
  emissions (being re-calculated)

Contributions:
• 13 % of all dietary energy; 25 % of all dietary
  protein
• 1.5 % of world GDP
• livelihood component to 1 billion people
Point of Departure
• The sector has specific resource issues
  – Low NRU efficiency
  – geographic dispersion (extensive systems)
  – geographic clustering (intensive systems)
• Demand will continue to grow and needs to
  be accommodated within finite resources
• Potential for social, health and economic
  gains needs to be seized
• The need for connecting actors and for joint
  action
Why livestock?
      Specific resource use issues


• Production of animal protein is typically less
  efficient than that of plant protein
• Remoteness - areas often out of reach (neglect,
  expansion into forests, overgrazing)
• Intensive systems are often detached from land
  base – nutrient depletion and overloads
Efficiency of Natural Resource Use
• Conversion efficiency of land, water,
  nutrients, energy
• (Partially) dependant on local resource
  endowment
• Huge gaps in efficiency exist within and
  between countries
• Knowledge/technology to substitute for
  natural resource use
Global non-CO2 emission intensities by
         commodity (tCO2eq/t protein)


200
180
160
140
120
100
 80
 60
 40
 20
  0
Inter-country comparison of nitrogen use
        efficiency in dairy production
       (Share of ingested N found in milk and meat)


40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
 5.0
 0.0
Relationship between total greenhouse gas
    emissions and milk output per cow

                            12.00


                            10.00
   kg CO2-eq. per kg FPCM




                             8.00


                             6.00


                             4.00


                             2.00


                             0.00
                                    0   1,000   2,000   3,000    4,000    5,000    6,000   7,000   8,000   9,000
                                                        Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
Closing the efficiency gap
• Resource constraints have started to “bite” - high
  commodity prices induce innovation and drive
  technology
• Productivity and efficiency gains move largely in
  parallel
• Huge gaps between attainable and actually attained
  efficiency
• Gaps can be narrowed with existing technology
• Globally there is more gain from large numbers of
  producers catching up than from pushing the frontier
• Prices need to reflect true scarcities of natural
  resources
Restoring value to grasslands
Issue: neglect of extensive grazing
areas, their people and their potential
services

• improved range management can help store
  soil carbon: average 0.13 to 0.81 tCO2-e ha-1 yr-1
  for moist and dry grasslands, respectively
  (IPCC, 2006)
• strong synergies between productivity
  gains, climate change mitigation and
  adaptation and other environmental services
Degraded grasslands




Satellite derived map using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data from 1981 until 2003
Methods to obtain this map: NDVI is converted to NPP (net primary productivity) and corrected by Rain-Use Efficiency (correct the
rainfall variability effect).
the trend in time (1981-2003) defines improvements (higher NDVI) or decline of the vegetation



                                                                              Data: Bai et al. , 2008. FAO / UNEP LADA project
Soil organic carbon (somtc) difference;
          [grazing level with max NPP] - [grazing level closest to LADA NPP}




                         Soil organic carbon (somtc) (gC m -2)

                                                    50
                                            0




                                                                     00
                                0




                                                           00




                                                                            0
                                       -0
                                5




                                                                            00
                                                -2




                                                                  ,0
                                                         -5
                             -2

                                      50




                                                                          1,
                                                                -1
                            <




                                                0

                                                       0
                                    -2




                                                                      >
                                                    25


                                                              0
                                                           50



This shows the technical potential for C sequestration (summed over the
simulation period 1961-2006). Estimated by subtracting max attainable
soil C levels (i.e. that could have been achieved if grazing levels were
optimally managed) from simulated baseline soil C levels. Also,
coverage is only for rangelands, not managed pastures
Restoring value to grasslands


• Carbon finance and other PES can alter the production
  function of grasslands, particularly in marginal areas
• Develop a “business case” for grasslands –
  multiple, global and local, environmental services
• Certification methodologies are required
• Institutional mechanisms for benefit sharing need to be
  developed
Towards zero discharge:
  Recovery of nutrients and energy from animal manure


Issue: Discharge of animal manure into the
environment caused by geographic concentration of
livestock
• total amounts of nutrients in livestock excreta > synthetic
  fertilizers
• 50 to 90 percent of nutrients contained in feed are excreted as
  manure, 30 % of energy
• Technology exists to recover most of the energy (biogas) and
  nutrients (except N)
• Policies to address spatial distribution of livestock are
  required
Globally-900,000,000 hogs




Estimated distribution of industrialized produced pig populations. Livestock’s Long
Shadow, 2006
Pig Distribution in the US




Total 60,000,000 hogs



                              Honeyman, Duffy, 2006. Iowa State Univ
Pigs in North Carolina

• 9,800,000 hogs and pigs
• 63% are grown in 5 of the 100 counties of the state
• 45% are in 2 of the 100 counties of the state and are on
  the coastal plain
Towards zero discharge
• Spatial policies (zoning) addressing land-
  livestock balances - create opportunities
  for nutrient recycling
• Emission standards (voluntary, non-
  voluntary)
• Waste management technology transfer
  and adaptation
• Incentive policies (incl. CDM in
  developing countries)
The Global Agenda of Action
  in Support of Sustainable
Livestock Sector Development
    Programme of action and
           structure
Direction of Change
Improving the efficiency of natural
resource use

Three focus areas:
 1. Closing the efficiency gap: catching up in
    technology adoption
 2. Restore value to grasslands: supporting soil
    carbon, ecosystem health and productivity
    restoration with climate finance
 3. Zero discharge: towards full recovery of
    nutrient and energy from animal manure
Closing the natural resource use
           efficiency gap
What has changed: The natural resource constraint is increasingly
perceived by stakeholders
Closing the natural resource use
           efficiency gap
What has changed: The natural resource constraint is increasingly
perceived by stakeholders
                                                     Govern-   Private   Civil     Science   Inter
 Actions                                             ments     Sector    Society             Govern
                                                                         Org.                mental
                                                                                             Org.

 Measuring efficiency
                                    Partnership
 Assessing natural resource use efficiency gap and
 options to close the gap

 Develop PPPs and other models to foster
 innovation and technology transfer
 Promote investment programmes for efficiency
 improvement


Expected result: More knowledge-intensive practices, with more efficient
natural resource use
Restoring value to grasslands
What has changed: Payment for Environmental Services and climate change
finance can reverse the neglect of grasslands and enhance productivity and
incomes
Restoring value to grasslands
What has changed: Payment for Environmental Services and climate change
finance can reverse the neglect of grasslands and enhance productivity and
incomes
 Actions                                            Govern-   Private   Civil     Science   Inter
                                                    ments     Sector    Society             Govern
                                                                        Org.                mental
                                                                                            Org.

 Assessing and targeting the potential for carbon
 sequestration and synergies with food security
 and other env. services
 Developing Monitoring Reporting and
 Verification methodologies

 Piloting institutional and technical approaches


 Develop intergovernmental support for
 grasslands, e.g. within UNFCCC


Expected result: Pastoralist adopt practices that provide environmental
services and improve food security
Recovery of nutrient and energy
      from animal manure
What has changed: Discharge of animal manure is less and less accepted
Recovery of nutrient and energy
      from animal manure
What has changed: Discharge of animal manure is less and less accepted
 Actions                                           Govern-   Private   Civil     Science   Inter
                                                   ments     Sector    Society             Govern
                                                                       Org.                mental
                                                                                           Org.

 Analyze the clustering trend and assess the
 constraints to the adoption of good manure
 management practices
 Develop regional networks that can provide
 assistance to policy makers

 Create opportunities for nutrient recycling and
 energy recovery

 Foster the development of PPPs and other
 models to foster technology transfer and
 farmers’ participation

Expected result: Increased nutrient and energy recovery from manure,
resulting in reduced pollution
The Agenda’s stakeholders


•   Governments
•   Private sector (branch organizations)
•   CSOs
•   Research and academia
•   Intergovernmental organizations (global, regional)
•   Smallholders/pastoralists not represented at global level
    (will be at operational level)
Implementation entities


• Platform of all members
• Advisory Group, composed of Focus Area Groups and
  Global Partners
• Secretariat
• Centers of excellence and ad hoc expert groups
• Regional hubs, closer to stakeholders, along focus areas
What’s new?

• The thematic focus
   – Offers strong synergies between economic gains and
     environmental impact reduction


• The action-orientation (change in practice)
   – Built ona sense of urgency to put what we know into practice


• Value added of the multi-stakeholder engagement
   – Convergence of interests and action will translate into change of
     practices
Implications for the social agenda
• Climate change will hit resource-poor
  grazers more than any other group
• Resource constraint hits the “middle ground”
  – less efficient, small scale, commercial
  production
• Carbon finance could help transition:
  – Pastoralists to landscape managers
  – Intensification, particularly of dairy (methane)
• “Zero discharge” may increase production
  cost of large-scale industrial production
Implications for Health Agenda
• Climate change will change incidence and
  severity of animal diseases (particularly
  vector-borne)
• Disease constraints to raising efficiency
  need to be lifted
• “zero discharge” will alleviate public
  health challenges associated with
  pollution
…towards a new narrative
PG Domain     No growth             Growth                    Problems of
                                                              growth
Environment   Restore grasslands/   Efficiency/ sustainable   Avoid pollution
              marginal lands        intensification
Social        Protection of         Income and                Sustained prosperity
              livelihoods           employment
Nutrition     Avoid starvation      Enrich diets              Avoid unhealthy diets

Health        Keep animals alive/   Remove constraints to     Safe and healthy food,
              keep production       production,               Functional trade
              systems functional    productivity, trade
Thank you

henning.steinfeld@fao.org
www.livestockdialogue.ord

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Global environmental challenges [and livestock]

  • 1. Global Environmental Challenges Henning Steinfeld, FAO ILRI-World Bank Consultation on the Global Livestock Agenda by 2020 Nairobi, 12 - 13 March 2012
  • 2. Livestock demand and resource constraints Global demand to grow by Growing scarcities and risks 70 to 80 % by 2050 • Growing scarcities - oil, • Stagnant in rich countries land, water, energy, • Still strong in emerging phosphorus countries • Environmental • Rapidly growing degradation and anywhere else (+200 % in pollution Africa) • Climate change
  • 3. 150 200 250 50 100 0 Apr-01 Aug-01 Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Commodity Price Index Monthly Price Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Commodity prices on the rise Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11
  • 4. International prices for maize and soy US $ /ton Facts and Trends Source: FAO commodity prices, 2011
  • 5. HUMAN-EDIBLE PROTEIN BALANCE IN THE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COUNTRIES EDIBLE PROTEIN OUTPUT/INPUT EDIBLE PROTEIN OUTPUT-INPUT TONNES AV. 1995-1997 AV.2005-2007 AV. 1995-1997 AV.2005-2007 Saudi Arabia 0.15 0.19 -533 731 -659 588 USA 0.48 0.53 -7 846 859 -7 650 830 Germany 0.66 0.62 -921 449 -1 183 290 China 0.75 0.95 -2 822 998 -665 276 Netherlands 1.66 1.02 322 804 18 070 Brazil 0.79 1.17 -622 177 550 402 Nepal 2.25 1.88 37 370 40 803 India 3.60 4.30 2 249 741 3 379 440 Sudan 18.22 8.75 235 868 340 895 New Zealand 8.04 10.06 460 366 638 015 Mongolia 14.72 14.60 42 987 35 858 Ethiopia 16.02 16.95 99 909 141 395 Kenya 18.08 21.16 124 513 202 803
  • 6. Point of Departure The livestock sector is resource-hungry • ~ 70 of total agricultural land, 35 % of all crop land • ~ 60 % of total anthropogenic biomass appropriation • ~ 29 % of agricultural water use • ~ 15 % of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (being re-calculated) Contributions: • 13 % of all dietary energy; 25 % of all dietary protein • 1.5 % of world GDP • livelihood component to 1 billion people
  • 7. Point of Departure • The sector has specific resource issues – Low NRU efficiency – geographic dispersion (extensive systems) – geographic clustering (intensive systems) • Demand will continue to grow and needs to be accommodated within finite resources • Potential for social, health and economic gains needs to be seized • The need for connecting actors and for joint action
  • 8. Why livestock? Specific resource use issues • Production of animal protein is typically less efficient than that of plant protein • Remoteness - areas often out of reach (neglect, expansion into forests, overgrazing) • Intensive systems are often detached from land base – nutrient depletion and overloads
  • 9. Efficiency of Natural Resource Use • Conversion efficiency of land, water, nutrients, energy • (Partially) dependant on local resource endowment • Huge gaps in efficiency exist within and between countries • Knowledge/technology to substitute for natural resource use
  • 10. Global non-CO2 emission intensities by commodity (tCO2eq/t protein) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
  • 11. Inter-country comparison of nitrogen use efficiency in dairy production (Share of ingested N found in milk and meat) 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
  • 12. Relationship between total greenhouse gas emissions and milk output per cow 12.00 10.00 kg CO2-eq. per kg FPCM 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
  • 13. Closing the efficiency gap • Resource constraints have started to “bite” - high commodity prices induce innovation and drive technology • Productivity and efficiency gains move largely in parallel • Huge gaps between attainable and actually attained efficiency • Gaps can be narrowed with existing technology • Globally there is more gain from large numbers of producers catching up than from pushing the frontier • Prices need to reflect true scarcities of natural resources
  • 14. Restoring value to grasslands Issue: neglect of extensive grazing areas, their people and their potential services • improved range management can help store soil carbon: average 0.13 to 0.81 tCO2-e ha-1 yr-1 for moist and dry grasslands, respectively (IPCC, 2006) • strong synergies between productivity gains, climate change mitigation and adaptation and other environmental services
  • 15. Degraded grasslands Satellite derived map using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data from 1981 until 2003 Methods to obtain this map: NDVI is converted to NPP (net primary productivity) and corrected by Rain-Use Efficiency (correct the rainfall variability effect). the trend in time (1981-2003) defines improvements (higher NDVI) or decline of the vegetation Data: Bai et al. , 2008. FAO / UNEP LADA project
  • 16. Soil organic carbon (somtc) difference; [grazing level with max NPP] - [grazing level closest to LADA NPP} Soil organic carbon (somtc) (gC m -2) 50 0 00 0 00 0 -0 5 00 -2 ,0 -5 -2 50 1, -1 < 0 0 -2 > 25 0 50 This shows the technical potential for C sequestration (summed over the simulation period 1961-2006). Estimated by subtracting max attainable soil C levels (i.e. that could have been achieved if grazing levels were optimally managed) from simulated baseline soil C levels. Also, coverage is only for rangelands, not managed pastures
  • 17. Restoring value to grasslands • Carbon finance and other PES can alter the production function of grasslands, particularly in marginal areas • Develop a “business case” for grasslands – multiple, global and local, environmental services • Certification methodologies are required • Institutional mechanisms for benefit sharing need to be developed
  • 18. Towards zero discharge: Recovery of nutrients and energy from animal manure Issue: Discharge of animal manure into the environment caused by geographic concentration of livestock • total amounts of nutrients in livestock excreta > synthetic fertilizers • 50 to 90 percent of nutrients contained in feed are excreted as manure, 30 % of energy • Technology exists to recover most of the energy (biogas) and nutrients (except N) • Policies to address spatial distribution of livestock are required
  • 19. Globally-900,000,000 hogs Estimated distribution of industrialized produced pig populations. Livestock’s Long Shadow, 2006
  • 20. Pig Distribution in the US Total 60,000,000 hogs Honeyman, Duffy, 2006. Iowa State Univ
  • 21. Pigs in North Carolina • 9,800,000 hogs and pigs • 63% are grown in 5 of the 100 counties of the state • 45% are in 2 of the 100 counties of the state and are on the coastal plain
  • 22. Towards zero discharge • Spatial policies (zoning) addressing land- livestock balances - create opportunities for nutrient recycling • Emission standards (voluntary, non- voluntary) • Waste management technology transfer and adaptation • Incentive policies (incl. CDM in developing countries)
  • 23. The Global Agenda of Action in Support of Sustainable Livestock Sector Development Programme of action and structure
  • 24. Direction of Change Improving the efficiency of natural resource use Three focus areas: 1. Closing the efficiency gap: catching up in technology adoption 2. Restore value to grasslands: supporting soil carbon, ecosystem health and productivity restoration with climate finance 3. Zero discharge: towards full recovery of nutrient and energy from animal manure
  • 25. Closing the natural resource use efficiency gap What has changed: The natural resource constraint is increasingly perceived by stakeholders
  • 26. Closing the natural resource use efficiency gap What has changed: The natural resource constraint is increasingly perceived by stakeholders Govern- Private Civil Science Inter Actions ments Sector Society Govern Org. mental Org. Measuring efficiency Partnership Assessing natural resource use efficiency gap and options to close the gap Develop PPPs and other models to foster innovation and technology transfer Promote investment programmes for efficiency improvement Expected result: More knowledge-intensive practices, with more efficient natural resource use
  • 27. Restoring value to grasslands What has changed: Payment for Environmental Services and climate change finance can reverse the neglect of grasslands and enhance productivity and incomes
  • 28. Restoring value to grasslands What has changed: Payment for Environmental Services and climate change finance can reverse the neglect of grasslands and enhance productivity and incomes Actions Govern- Private Civil Science Inter ments Sector Society Govern Org. mental Org. Assessing and targeting the potential for carbon sequestration and synergies with food security and other env. services Developing Monitoring Reporting and Verification methodologies Piloting institutional and technical approaches Develop intergovernmental support for grasslands, e.g. within UNFCCC Expected result: Pastoralist adopt practices that provide environmental services and improve food security
  • 29. Recovery of nutrient and energy from animal manure What has changed: Discharge of animal manure is less and less accepted
  • 30. Recovery of nutrient and energy from animal manure What has changed: Discharge of animal manure is less and less accepted Actions Govern- Private Civil Science Inter ments Sector Society Govern Org. mental Org. Analyze the clustering trend and assess the constraints to the adoption of good manure management practices Develop regional networks that can provide assistance to policy makers Create opportunities for nutrient recycling and energy recovery Foster the development of PPPs and other models to foster technology transfer and farmers’ participation Expected result: Increased nutrient and energy recovery from manure, resulting in reduced pollution
  • 31. The Agenda’s stakeholders • Governments • Private sector (branch organizations) • CSOs • Research and academia • Intergovernmental organizations (global, regional) • Smallholders/pastoralists not represented at global level (will be at operational level)
  • 32. Implementation entities • Platform of all members • Advisory Group, composed of Focus Area Groups and Global Partners • Secretariat • Centers of excellence and ad hoc expert groups • Regional hubs, closer to stakeholders, along focus areas
  • 33. What’s new? • The thematic focus – Offers strong synergies between economic gains and environmental impact reduction • The action-orientation (change in practice) – Built ona sense of urgency to put what we know into practice • Value added of the multi-stakeholder engagement – Convergence of interests and action will translate into change of practices
  • 34. Implications for the social agenda • Climate change will hit resource-poor grazers more than any other group • Resource constraint hits the “middle ground” – less efficient, small scale, commercial production • Carbon finance could help transition: – Pastoralists to landscape managers – Intensification, particularly of dairy (methane) • “Zero discharge” may increase production cost of large-scale industrial production
  • 35. Implications for Health Agenda • Climate change will change incidence and severity of animal diseases (particularly vector-borne) • Disease constraints to raising efficiency need to be lifted • “zero discharge” will alleviate public health challenges associated with pollution
  • 36. …towards a new narrative PG Domain No growth Growth Problems of growth Environment Restore grasslands/ Efficiency/ sustainable Avoid pollution marginal lands intensification Social Protection of Income and Sustained prosperity livelihoods employment Nutrition Avoid starvation Enrich diets Avoid unhealthy diets Health Keep animals alive/ Remove constraints to Safe and healthy food, keep production production, Functional trade systems functional productivity, trade

Editor's Notes

  1. Regional differences in objectives and available methods/data